Morphman wrote:

Monny wrote:

dyed in the wool wrote:

From what I can work out, we need 6pts to mathematically avoid 11th place. 

Without the 6pts though, it would require us to lose every game.  Livingston to gain no points post split and the lower placed team (out with Livi of course) to win each fixture during the split (draws where pts level) for all teams to overtake us.

Statistically improbable, Yes - but not quite impossible yet. 

Someone smarter may have different workings like, but I'm fairly sure this will be correct.

There's seven games left, and so 21 points. We can't finish 12th, but could still finish 11th. That would happen if we lost all seven games, Killie and St. Mirren won three games each in addition to beating us, Aberdeen won two additional games, and Dundee one. That's an unlikely scenario, but not impossible.

If we won two of our last seven then, for us to finish 11th, Killie and St. Mirren would both need to win 5 and draw 1 (or win 5 and overturn the hefty goal difference in our favour), Aberdeen would need to win 4 and draw 2, and Dundee win 4. I think that's possible.

Suppose the next two rounds play out as follows, with winners capitalised:

DUNDEE v Celtic
Hibs v KILLIE
ST. MIRREN v Aberdeen

ABERDEEN v Hibs
Celtic v ST. MIRREN
KILLIE v Dundee

That leaves Aberdeen needing 3 wins and 2 draws, Killie, and St. Mirren both needing 3 wins and 1 draw, and Dundee needing 3 wins.

Suppose they all beat us and Livi in the last five. Then from the other three games Aberdeen need 1 win and 2 draws, Killie and St. Mirren needing 1 win and 1 draw, and Dundee 1 win. And that's possible:

ABERDEEN v Dundee
Aberdeen v Killie
Aberdeen v St. Mirren
DUNDEE v Killie
Dundee v ST. MIRREN
KILLIE v St. Mirren

(Can you tell I'm putting off writing a report?)

Some effort this Monny  

A real armageddon scenario needed at this point then. Just can't see us not beating Livi at Tannadice at the very least, they are as poor of a team as I've seen in the league. That most recent game at the Tony Macaroni was 3 going on 7 or 8 and the draw at Tannadice we absolutely battered them after Esselink made a noel hunt of it to give them the lead.

They’ve been better since Martindale moved upstairs.